Monday, November 04, 2013

Attitudes towards Democracy and Economics

This should be my last post in this string. Looking again through the estimated Pew data structure, the question Q21 on attitudes towards democracy (always best, I don't care, or sometimes not best) is nested in the Bayesian network between two questions Q72 (do you prefer a good democracy or a strong economy) and Q71 (do you prefer a strong democracy or a strong leader).

The substructure is Q72 -> Q21 -> Q71, and the antecedent Q72 is driven by views on the importance of improving economic conditions Q115G.

The joint distributions of Q21 with its antecedent, Q72, and its child Q71 is self explanatory and shown below.

Joint Distribution of Q72 and Q21, Pew Spring 2012 Egypt survey
Almost 50-50 split between prioritizing economy and democracy, with very positive views on democracy.

Joint Distribution of Q21 and Q71, Pew Spring 2012 Egypt Survey
Very strong pro-democracy sentiments in Spring 2012. This is where a lot of public opinion might have shifted, and may, of course, shift again.


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